Bernie Sanders won the Nevada caucuses in a crushing landslide on Saturday, February 22nd. Sanders won two-thirds of the state’s pledged delegates and two-and-two-thirds times as many delegates as the next candidate, Joe Biden. Biden, in turn, had three times as many delegates as Buttigieg, so clearly there were no ties or close calls at any point in the caucuses. The clear win cements Bernie’s status as the frontrunner in the race.
| Pledged Delegates from Nevada | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Total CCDs | Percent | Pledged Delegates |
| Sanders | 6,788 | 46.8% | 24 |
| Biden | 2,927 | 20.2% | 9 |
| Buttigieg | 2,073 | 14.3% | 3 |
| Warren | 1,406 | 9.7% | 0 |
| Steyer | 682 | 4.7% | 0 |
| Klobuchar | 603 | 4.2% | 0 |
| Source: The New York Times | |||
Sanders won the most votes from essentially every voter category that is polled, including White voters, Black voters, Latino voters, college-educated voters, non-college-educated voters, and more. He performed even better than the polls leading up to the caucuses indicated he would. It is illuminating to see him win so strongly with every group of Democratic voters despite the narratives that he is “unelectable” and that he is “not really a Democrat,” or that he does not represent the Democratic Party.
| Caucus Results: First and Final Rounds | ||||||
| First Vote | Final Vote | Change | ||||
| Candidate | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % |
| Sanders | 35,652 | 34.0% | 41,075 | 40.5% | +5,423 | +6.5% |
| Biden | 18,424 | 17.6% | 19,179 | 18.9% | +755 | +1.3% |
| Buttigieg | 16,102 | 15.4% | 17,598 | 17.3% | +1,496 | +1.9% |
| Warren | 13,438 | 12.8% | 11,703 | 11.5% | -1,735 | -1.3% |
| Steyer | 9,503 | 9.1% | 4,120 | 4.1% | -5,383 | -5.0% |
| Klobuchar | 10,100 | 9.6% | 7,376 | 7.3% | -2,724 | -2.3% |
| Source: The New York Times | ||||||
Caucuses are made up of multiple rounds of voting, as low-performing candidates are eliminated and voters are allowed to re-align. It makes sense that the three candidates who walked away with delegates each increased in votes over the rounds, whereas those who received no delegates lost votes throughout the night.
In another demonstration of his commanding lead, Bernie had the largest increases from the initial vote to the final vote. Of the three who gained delegates Saturday night, Biden had the lowest gains — not a good sign for the presumed “electability candidate.”
From the three contests so far, 100 delegates have been awarded. Note that 1 Pledged Delegate from Iowa still remains to be allocated. Here is where the candidates currently stand:
| Total Pledged Delegates So Far | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | # Delegates Won | % Delegates Won |
| Sanders | 45 | 45.00% |
| Buttigieg | 25 | 25.00% |
| Biden | 15 | 15.00% |
| Warren | 8 | 8.00% |
| Klobuchar | 7 | 7.00% |
| Steyer | 0 | 0.00% |
| Source: The New York Times | ||
Two things are obvious from the start. One, Bernie Sanders has a yuge lead in the race so far thanks to his yuge win in Nevada. And two, the race is still very early on, with only about 2.5% of the Total Pledged Delegates having been awarded so far. So technically, anybody could win. But these contests do not take place in a vacuum. Momentum is crucial. Not just that, but having the right momentum at the right time will make or break a candidacy. Bernie has all of the momentum coming out of Nevada. This is also a good sign for his ability to win diverse states, such as South Carolina this Saturday. If Bernie wins in South Carolina — even modestly — he remains the top candidate going into Super Tuesday. Even if he comes in second or third place in South Carolina, his delegate lead is so commanding that he could still be in first place going into Super Tuesday. Winning begets winning, and he is currently positioned to do well in many Super Tuesday states, as well.
The overall second place candidate, Pete Buttigieg, had a fairly poor showing in Nevada. Obviously not as poor as the multiple candidates who received no Pledged Delegates at all, but he lost his ability to say he is tied for first. Inversely from Sanders’ momentum, a poor showing in his first racially-diverse contest does not bode well for him going into South Carolina. Depending on how the other candidates perform in the Palmetto State, Buttigieg is looking to either maintain his second-place status or quickly fall behind. Buttigieg performed well in Iowa and New Hampshire for two reasons: Demographics and campaign strategy. It is no secret that he has a poor history with the African-American community and is likewise polling and performing poorly in racially-diverse contests. However, his strategy of spending months in Iowa and New Hampshire played out in his favor for the start of the Democratic contests. But he lost the very next race and is looking to perform just as bad or even worse in the next contest after that. Fortunately for him, there are only three days between South Carolina and Super Tuesday, so — if he performs poorly in South Carolina — he may be able to avoid having as much negative press as he otherwise would.
Joe Biden referred to himself as “the Comeback Kid” after finishing in a distant second place in Nevada. My question is this: Come back from where? Yes, the former Vice President was polling sky-high throughout 2019, but he also had the highest name recognition — a major factor in polling. But support based on name recognition is soft and unsustainable. Even for a few weeks before Iowa, it was becoming obvious that he would not perform well in the first caucus. He then performed so poorly in New Hampshire that he fled the state to go campaign in South Carolina before the New Hampshire results even came in. So coming in a distant second was his “comeback” from two very poor showings, right? Well, keep in mind this is his third presidential run, following his short-lived campaigns in 1988 and 2008. In 1988, he dropped out due to a plagiarism controversy months before the first contest. In 2008, he quickly dropped out after placing fifth in Iowa. So his second-place status in Nevada this year is his best performance ever in a presidential primary or caucus, and he was still crushed. He didn’t “come back” because he was never really on top to begin with. Fortunately for Biden, he is currently polling with an 18-point lead in South Carolina, so he is in good shape to go into Super Tuesday with at least some momentum.