South Carolina, the fourth state in the union to hold its contests, has its primaries for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination today. How are each of the major candidates expected to perform tonight, and what will happen going into Super Tuesday?
Joe Biden is facing a make-it-or-break-it moment in South Carolina. Following terrible showings in Iowa and New Hampshire and an okay showing in Nevada (he placed second, but received fewer than half of the amount of delegates as Bernie Sanders), his campaign will not have any momentum at all going into Super Tuesday if he performs poorly in South Carolina, as well. For months now, his campaign has considered South Carolina to be his “firewall.” At the debate on Tuesday, he proclaimed confidently that he will win on Saturday — no ifs, ands, or buts. Fortunately for him, he is polling well. Various recent polls place him anywhere from having a miniscule 4-point lead to a commanding 21-point lead. Most polls seem to have him around a 15-point lead on average. Whereas polling is the best insight we have into an upcoming election, it is usually good at giving you a general insight into voters’ preferences while being terrible at predicting exactly what happens. If Biden wins big tonight, as polling suggests, then he will be riding a brief yet high media wave that could result in earning more delegates on Tuesday. If the polling proves unreliable and he loses tonight, this will be his last chance to pack things up and go home if he wants to avoid ending his note on an even more embarrassing note. If he ekes out a narrow victory, then he will probably continue into Tuesday, but he will likely have trouble convincing anyone to fund his campaign for much longer. If another centrist candidate manages to defeat him in his “firewall,” then he’s toast.
Bernie Sanders is the second favorite going into South Carolina. He consistently polling in second place, though that is behind Biden’s 15-or-so-point lead. If Bernie can do what he has already done this year and outperform his polling expectations, then the media will be discussing whether his campaign is already unstoppable at this point. One poll earlier this month even had Bernie tied with Biden at 23 points with Steyer close behind at 20 points and Buttigieg trailing at 15 points. How many of South Carolina’s 54 delegates Bernie is awarded depends not only on how he performs compared to Joe Biden, but on how everyone else performs compared to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Most polls have only Biden and Sanders at 15 points or above, with Tom Steyer being the only possible exception. If only two candidates meet that threshold, then they will be the only two to split up the state’s delegates. Unless Joe Biden absolutely crushes it tonight, Bernie will likely still hold a delegate lead going into Super Tuesday. No matter what happens tonight, he will be able to make a good case for his campaign going into Tuesday. Bernie currently holds a 30-point delegate lead over Biden, at 45 to 15.
If Bernie takes just 12 of the 54 delegates (22.22%) and Biden takes the remaining 42 delegates (77.78%), then the two candidates will be tied for total delegates so far. Considering the facts that Bernie has performed much better than that (having 45% of the delegates and winning the popular vote in every contest) so far and Biden has performed much worse than that (having just 15% of the delegates and only receiving enough votes to get delegates from one state) so far, even this would be surprising. The three most recent polls average Biden at 39.7 points, Sanders at 24.3 points, and nobody else at 15 points or higher. Although it is never this simple and easy, if we assume that they each receive this exact proportion of the delegate equivalents, then Biden would be awarded 62% of the pledged delegates and Sanders would receive 38%. This is because nobody under that 15% threshold would receive any delegates at all. This means that Biden would walk away with 33 delegates and Sanders would take 21 delegates. Adding this to their delegate totals so far, Bernie would still lead with 66 delegates compared to Biden’s 53. Essentially, Bernie would have to perform far, far below expectations in order to not enter Super Tuesday as the frontrunner.
Tom Steyer has his first real chance to win any delegates today. Unfortunately for him, there is no chance for him to take more than just a few delegates. The three most recent polls show an average of 11.7 points for Steyer, with all three polls placing below the 15-point threshold. The three immediately preceding polls show an average of 17 points, with all three polls placing at or above the 15-point threshold. Short of a major upset, he will go into Super Tuesday with little-to-no delegates. Even if he gets zero delegates for the fourth time in a row, as a billionaire, he can do whatever he pleases and stay in the race as long as he so desires. One would think that he will soon drop out and put his fortunes behind another candidate. He has a fairly progressive record, such as calling for a wealth tax and fighting for climate change response. Soon enough, we will likely see how his short-lived career as a politician aligns with this.
Pete Buttigieg has a famously poor level of support among African-Americans, who are likely to make up to 60% of the voting bloc today. Outside of white, educated moderates, Pete does not poll well. As such, it is easy to understand why he did well in Iowa and New Hampshire, why he did poorly in Nevada, and why he will do poorly again in South Carolina. Expect Pete to take 0 delegates and then to make some faux-victory speech filled with pretty, empty platitudes designed as thinly veiled attacks on whoever does perform well. Biden will surely gain at least 10 delegates tonight, putting Buttigieg in third place in the total pledged delegate count so far. The former mayor will no doubt carry his campaign into Super Tuesday, where FiveThirtyEight predicts him performing poorly in all 15 contests. He currently has no more than an 8% chance of winning in any Super Tuesday state. He even has a 0% chance in a few of those, with an average of 2.2%. When he ultimately loses in Super Tuesday, you can expect his donors to call him up and tell him it’s time to hang up his sweater. But considering that he has basically been running for president since he was a teenager, you can bet that we will not have yet seen the last of Mr. Boot-Edge-Edge.
Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar are also polling poorly going into South Carolina. They are polling below Buttigieg, so there is no reason to think that either of them will receive any delegates tonight. In fact, Mike Bloomberg, who’s not even on the ballot in South Carolina is predicted to outperform all three of these candidates. Warren and Klobuchar are currently polling decently in only their home states of Massachusetts and Minnesota, respectively. Even still, FiveThirtyEight predicts that Klobuchar has a 47% chance of winning Minnesota, which is tied with Bernie. Warren is shown to have just a 25% chance, compared to Bernie’s 58% chance. If these two candidates lose in their home states, then the last two female candidates will be sure to drop out the same night.
With Super Tuesday only three days away, all major candidates will likely continue their campaigns until at least Tuesday night. Even if someone performs poorly in three or even all four states before Super Tuesday, most of them are hoping to perform well in at least some of the 15 states on Tuesday. Anyone that gathers even a modest number of delegates between now and next Tuesday will probably continue their campaigns even further — either until they continue to perform poorly or until they run out of contributions and can no longer maintain a campaign.