Results from the South Carolina Primary were just as quick and decisive as those of the Nevada Caucuses a week prior. However, the story coming out of the state is entirely different. Joe Biden needed a win, and he won big!
| Pledged Delegates from South Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Percent | Delegates |
| Joe Biden | 255,662 | 48.4% | 39 |
| Bernie Sanders | 105,070 | 19.9% | 15 |
| Tom Steyer | 59,815 | 11.3% | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg | 43,484 | 8.2% | 0 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 37,285 | 7.1% | 0 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 16,610 | 3.1% | 0 |
| Source: The New York Times | |||
Joe Biden won decisively with 48.4% of the vote compared to Bernie Sanders’ 19.9% (Biden won 243% as many votes as Sanders). By comparison, in Nevada, Bernie won 46.8% of County Convention Delegates (CCDs) compared to Biden’s 20.2% (Sanders won 232% as many CCDs as Biden). It is important to note that we cannot make a 1:1 comparison between the two contests because primaries function differently from caucuses and each state can set its own procedures and rules. However, we can see that each candidate trounced the other in more-or-less equal measure across the two contests.
At this point, there are effectively only two or three viable candidates left.
| Total Delegates Won So Far | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Delegates | Percent | Change |
| Bernie Sanders | 60 | 38.96% | -6.04% |
| Joe Biden | 54 | 35.06% | +20.06% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 25 | 16.23% | -8.77% |
| Elizabeth Warren | 8 | 5.19% | -2.81% |
| Amy Klobuchar | 7 | 4.55% | -2.45% |
| Tom Steyer | 0 | 0.00% | NC |
Joe Biden saved his campaign last night with an astonishing victory, winning close to a majority of the vote in a race with several candidates on the ballot. This was his first primary victory in any of his three presidential campaigns. Biden now sits handsomely in second place of the total delegate count so far. He managed to rake in 39 of South Carolina’s 54 delegates (72.22%). I thought he would win, but not by this much. He now has 54 of 154 delegates so far (35.06%). Also, 39 of his 54 delegates (72.22%) so far came from South Carolina last night. This shows that he does perform well with African American voters and older Democratic voters. As a result, he will likely perform well in at least a few Super Tuesday states, particularly southern states like Alabama.
Bernie Sanders holds a modest lead in the delegate count by 6. He has proven his viability in three of the four contests so far — winning the popular vote in all three of those contests. The only other candidate to meet the 15% thresholds last night, he earned 15 of South Carolina’s 54 delegates (27.77%). As previously discussed, he needed 13 of the delegates (24.07%) to hold his lead. Early returns showed him with 14.7 of the statewide popular vote, so he likely feels relieved that he met the 15% threshold across the state and in a number of districts. Regardless, Bernie’s delegate lead going into South Carolina was strong enough that he could afford a loss without stalling his campaign. Bernie gave his first concession speech of the season. It was classy to see him directly admit defeat and not pretend like he somehow won in some other way like most candidates do in this situation.
Pete Buttigieg earned just 3 delegates in Nevada and no delegates in South Carolina. Despite being in third place in terms of total delegates awarded so far, he’s not polling well in any of the Super Tuesday states. Unless he pulls off some stunning upset, his campaign is not long for this world. It is interesting to compare Buttigieg’s and Biden’s campaign strategies. Buttigieg put all his eggs in the Iowa and New Hampshire baskets. This served its purpose of giving him a head start in a long race. However, with all his eggs spent, he quickly ran out of fumes and is now stalling. (Okay, so I’m mixing metaphors.) Biden put all his eggs in the South Carolina basket. Although many worried for a few weeks that his campaign was dead, he made a strong case for his viability with just one decisive victory. Unlike Buttigieg, he was already polling decently in a few Super Tuesday states, especially across the South. One could make the case that his polling numbers and his performance in those Super Tuesday states will jump back up thanks to this big win. These two candidates with similar campaign strategies now have entirely disparate prognoses: Buttigieg is unlikely to last long and Biden now has a good chance of being in this race until the bitter end.
The prospects for the other competing candidates aren’t great. First, Tom Steyer dropped out last night after placing third in South Carolina. Similar to Biden, he was focusing his campaign on South Carolina. He did not meet the requisite 15% threshold to earn any delegates for the fourth contest in a row. He seems apt to align his resources behind another candidate. It will be interesting if he endorses another candidate before Super Tuesday.
Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren are in dire straits. It’s hard to imagine their campaigns receiving much financial support following yet another poor showing. At this point, they are lagging behind in distant fourth and fifth places. Elizabeth Warren will enter Super Tuesday without having earned any delegates in a month (since the February 3rd primaries in Iowa). Amy Klobuchar hasn’t performed much better and actually holds one fewer delegate than Warren. The home states of both candidates are voting on Super Tuesday, so of course they are hoping to earn delegates in at least their home states. Unfortunately, even that is not a guarantee at this point, as Bernie has been expected to perform equal to Klobuchar and ahead of Warren in their respective home states. A loss in their home states would be embarrassing. Even if they eke out those wins, they won’t be in the race much longer.
It remains to be seen how effective Mike Bloomberg‘s campaign strategy will be; we will have to wait for the results from Super Tuesday to truly assess his viability. It is reasonable to think that he will at least have enough votes to make an impact on how the delegates are awarded. Whether he will win enough to be a viable candidate himself is the big question to be answered.